Linear Play Speed Adjusted 40 Model
Translating in-game play speed to 40-yard dash times for WR
The Linear Play Speed Adjusted 40 Model attempts to put in-game linear play speed for WRs on the same scale as the NFL Combine 40-yard dash to compare which players play faster or slower than their 40-yard dash times in the NFL.
The model takes into account each WR’s 95th percentile max speed and average max speed on Go, Seam, and Post routes (deep routes) as well as their height and weight (min. 50 deep routes across 2022-23).
Application: The application of this model is to eventually be able to use College Tracking Data to predict the difference in times before the NFL Draft. This will allow teams to compare the tracking data to the 40-times coming in during the NFL Combine and Pro Days.
Additionally, this should allow a personnel department to key in on players in the later rounds that might “fall” in the draft despite having the requisite linear play speed to play in the league at a high level. (Ex. Puka Nacua - Pro Day 40: 4.57; Adjusted 40: 4.45; DIF: -0.12s)
Wide Receivers who play faster than their 40-time
- Other notable differences: Trey Burks (-0.14); Jakobi Meyers (-0.11)
Wide Receivers who play slower than their 40-time
- Other notable differences: Rondale Moore (+0.14); Chase Claypool (+0.12)
Takeaways
I believe this model is best used for determining who could be a late round steal or who might be fool’s gold based off Combine/Pro Day bias.
Players like Kupp and Jennings could have been taken off some team’s draft boards because they didn’t meet their positional 40-time threshold. But if teams had this model prior to the draft they could have seen their on-field speed played much faster than their 40-time indicated.
As for the players who played slower — the model does a good job of identifying players teams should be cautious using high draft capital on (outside of Metcalf). I believe it’s difficult to have true low-4.3 play speed and that’s why you see the increases in adjusted 40-time speeds for these players as well.